Hull City AFC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 0.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 100¢ · $403 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 43%
$402.59
-$9.94
98.5¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DR Dreamwire | Overavg 99.9¢ | $312.51 | $312.66 | +$0.16 | 83% 2622-528 (3150) |
 LonnieHawkinss<$100 | Overavg 89¢ | $44.5 | $46.75 | +$2.25 | 52% 1888-1746 (3634) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $19.99 | $19.99 | +$0.01 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 7.5¢ | $22.35 | $19.25 | -$3.1 | 50% 33398-32968 (66366) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 8.5¢ | $3.4 | $2.6 | -$0.8 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 7¢ | $1.4 | $1.3 | -$0.1 | 54% 56601-48769 (105370) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 10.5¢ | $8.4 | $0.04 | -$8.36 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
Invested
$312.51
Value
$312.66
PnL
+$0.16
Record
83%
2622-528 (3150)
LonnieHawkinss<$100Invested
$44.5
Value
$46.75
PnL
+$2.25
Record
52%
1888-1746 (3634)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$19.99
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
Invested
$22.35
Value
$19.25
PnL
-$3.1
Record
50%
33398-32968 (66366)
Invested
$3.4
Value
$2.6
PnL
-$0.8
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$1.4
Value
$1.3
PnL
-$0.1
Record
54%
56601-48769 (105370)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$8.36
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.