Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Fulham FC (70%) · Fulham FC at 93¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 7

Newcastle United FC8¢Fulham FC92¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Fulham FC

Consensus Traders

Fulham FC 70%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$32.79

Smart Money Entry

89¢ → 92.5¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralFulham FC at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fulham FC

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Newcastle United FC8%

Fulham FC93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Fulham FC7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,522

Combined PnL+$2.18

Newcastle United FC3 traders

Total Value$120.23

Total Shares1,412

Combined PnL-$34.97

Fulham FC — 70%Newcastle United FC — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Fulham FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFulham FC 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFulham FC 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Fulham FC 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Fulham FCavg 89¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$5.71	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
38 38791873984189	Fulham FCavg 89¢	$253.51	$260.68	+$7.17	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Newcastle United FCavg 11¢	$121.93	$94.22	-$27.71	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
GH ghorrock<$100	Fulham FCavg 88¢	$25.38	$25.67	+$0.29	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Newcastle United FCavg 11¢	$32.16	$24.85	-$7.31	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
tradecraft<$100	Fulham FCavg 88¢	$12.15	$12.29	+$0.21	51% 6512-6277 (12789)
PA Pan9X<$100	Fulham FCavg 89¢	$8.01	$8.24	+$0.22	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Fulham FCavg 89¢	$4.45	$4.45	+$0	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
SE sentrio<$100	Fulham FCavg 89¢	$4.45	$4.45	+$0	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Newcastle United FCavg 10¢	$1.1	$1.16	+$0.06	46% 5316-6151 (11467)

GoalLineGhost

Fulham FC

Invested

$1,047.07

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$5.71

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

38791873984189

Fulham FC

Invested

$253.51

Value

$260.68

PnL

+$7.17

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

LightParadoxCTR

Newcastle United FC

Invested

$121.93

Value

$94.22

PnL

-$27.71

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

ghorrock<$100

Fulham FC

Invested

$25.38

Value

$25.67

PnL

+$0.29

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

VenusianCTR<$100

Newcastle United FC

Invested

$32.16

Value

$24.85

PnL

-$7.31

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

tradecraft<$100

Fulham FC

Invested

$12.15

Value

$12.29

PnL

+$0.21

Record

51%

6512-6277 (12789)

Pan9X<$100

Fulham FC

Invested

$8.01

Value

$8.24

PnL

+$0.22

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

Flaznorp<$100

Fulham FC

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

sentrio<$100

Fulham FC

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

hi774cCTR<$100

Newcastle United FC

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$0.06

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

Research grade

NeutralFulham FC at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Fulham FC

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Fulham FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFulham FC 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFulham FC 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Fulham FC 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fulham FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.