Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-11-07?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 28¢ · $807 held · ends Nov 7

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$806.84

Combined PnL

$15.08

Smart Money Entry

26.3¢ → 27.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$682.37

Total Shares2,527

Combined PnL+$15.45

No3 traders

Total Value$124.47

Total Shares159

Combined PnL-$0.37

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$467.88	$485.88	+$18	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 26¢	$116.74	$121.17	+$4.43	58% 45573-32987 (78560)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 72¢	$97.93	$97.93	-$0	39% 1400-2160 (3560)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$82.3	$75.33	-$6.97	48% 59434-63450 (122884)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 73¢	$13.52	$13.33	-$0.19	53% 16539-14712 (31251)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 73¢	$13.38	$13.2	-$0.18	40% 1398-2089 (3487)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$467.88

Value

$485.88

PnL

+$18

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$116.74

Value

$121.17

PnL

+$4.43

Record

58%

45573-32987 (78560)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$97.93

Value

$97.93

PnL

-$0

Record

39%

1400-2160 (3560)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.3

Value

$75.33

PnL

-$6.97

Record

48%

59434-63450 (122884)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$13.52

Value

$13.33

PnL

-$0.19

Record

53%

16539-14712 (31251)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$13.38

Value

$13.2

PnL

-$0.18

Record

40%

1398-2089 (3487)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.