Will Fulham FC win on 2026-11-07?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 53¢ · $328 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$328.13
$1.72
53.1¢ → 53¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 53.2¢ | $209.89 | $209.21 | -$0.68 | 51% 26303-24938 (51241) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $98.6 | $100.75 | +$2.14 | 58% 47026-33907 (80933) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $13.76 | $13.76 | +$0.13 | 64% 10064-5621 (15685) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $4.33 | $4.42 | +$0.12 | 64% 10089-5690 (15779) |
Invested
$209.89
Value
$209.21
PnL
-$0.68
Record
51%
26303-24938 (51241)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$98.6
Value
$100.75
PnL
+$2.14
Record
58%
47026-33907 (80933)
Invested
$13.76
Value
$13.76
PnL
+$0.13
Record
64%
10064-5621 (15685)
Invested
$4.33
Value
$4.42
PnL
+$0.12
Record
64%
10089-5690 (15779)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.