Will Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 74¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$2.3K
$37.56
73¢ → 73.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 73¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$7.46 | 51% 27041-25614 (52655) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 73¢ | $629.07 | $646.31 | +$17.23 | 64% 10175-5710 (15885) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 73¢ | $459.88 | $472.48 | +$12.6 | 64% 10173-5762 (15935) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $49.76 | $49.51 | -$0.25 | 48% 62365-67229 (129594) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $47.19 | $47.52 | +$0.32 | 58% 21660-15754 (37414) |
WA waiermaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $10.37 | $9.62 | +$0.19 | 45% 95-117 (212) |
Invested
$1,088.96
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$7.46
Record
51%
27041-25614 (52655)
Invested
$629.07
Value
$646.31
PnL
+$17.23
Record
64%
10175-5710 (15885)
Invested
$459.88
Value
$472.48
PnL
+$12.6
Record
64%
10173-5762 (15935)
Invested
$49.76
Value
$49.51
PnL
-$0.25
Record
48%
62365-67229 (129594)
Invested
$47.19
Value
$47.52
PnL
+$0.32
Record
58%
21660-15754 (37414)
Invested
$10.37
Value
$9.62
PnL
+$0.19
Record
45%
95-117 (212)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.