Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-11-06?

17 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 82¢ · $46K held · ends Nov 6

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$45.9K

Combined PnL

-$141.98

Smart Money Entry

82.1¢ → 81.5¢

-1% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 82%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 22 top traders (77%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$42.3K

Total Shares51,103

Combined PnL-$231.88

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares18,313

Combined PnL+$89.9

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 82¢	$15.6K	$15.5K	-$94.87	51% 26331-24957 (51288)
BE beautifulobsession	Noavg 82.7¢	$10.1K	$9.9K	-$150.98	66% 96-50 (146)
NM NM-P	Noavg 81.8¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$9.25	64% 10070-5629 (15699)
GC GC-P	Noavg 81.7¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$18.25	64% 10093-5699 (15792)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 82¢	$5.9K	$2.5K	-$6.91	58% 47075-33957 (81032)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 82¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$0	67% 2807-1387 (4194)
SE sentrio	Noavg 82¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$13.67	50% 26109-25769 (51878)
PU purplegattoCTR	Yesavg 18¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$48.29	49% 6358-6517 (12875)
AN Anon455CTR	Yesavg 18¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$25.76	55% 3657-3016 (6673)
DA darkumbreon88	Noavg 81¢	$744.48	$749.07	+$4.6	64% 2012-1119 (3131)
CA Cannae	Noavg 80.4¢	$653.14	$666.34	+$13.2	53% 16941-15068 (32009)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 18¢	$615	$632.08	+$17.08	50% 28617-28446 (57063)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 82¢	$491.99	$491.99	+$0	51% 1987-1920 (3907)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 80.7¢	$811.11	$380.1	+$7.19	48% 61939-66798 (128737)
VE Venusian	Noavg 81.8¢	$371.23	$372.28	+$2.27	50% 1611-1634 (3245)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 82.7¢	$227.78	$225.75	-$2.03	50% 1593-1611 (3204)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 82¢	$158.18	$157.69	-$0.49	54% 10096-8478 (18574)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 81¢	$46.81	$47.1	+$0.29	51% 6449-6228 (12677)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$41.76	$40.6	-$1.16	46% 8689-10363 (19052)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 81.2¢	$45.8	$30.87	+$0.35	58% 21422-15550 (36972)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 80¢	$10.44	$10.7	+$0.2	50% 37969-37225 (75194)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$1.3	$1.22	-$0.07	48% 7427-7962 (15389)

Flaznorp

Invested

$15,558.43

Value

$15.5K

PnL

-$94.87

Record

51%

26331-24957 (51288)

beautifulobsession

Invested

$10,090

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$150.98

Record

66%

96-50 (146)

NM-P

Invested

$3,386.8

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$9.25

Record

64%

10070-5629 (15699)

GC-P

Invested

$2,989.42

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$18.25

Record

64%

10093-5699 (15792)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$5,915.88

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$6.91

Record

58%

47075-33957 (81032)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,460

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

2807-1387 (4194)

sentrio

Invested

$2,394.15

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$13.67

Record

50%

26109-25769 (51878)

purplegattoCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,738.26

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$48.29

Record

49%

6358-6517 (12875)

Anon455CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,104.84

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$25.76

Record

55%

3657-3016 (6673)

darkumbreon88

Invested

$744.48

Value

$749.07

PnL

+$4.6

Record

64%

2012-1119 (3131)

Cannae

Invested

$653.14

Value

$666.34

PnL

+$13.2

Record

53%

16941-15068 (32009)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$615

Value

$632.08

PnL

+$17.08

Record

50%

28617-28446 (57063)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$491.99

Value

$491.99

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1987-1920 (3907)

38791873984189

Invested

$811.11

Value

$380.1

PnL

+$7.19

Record

48%

61939-66798 (128737)

Venusian

Invested

$371.23

Value

$372.28

PnL

+$2.27

Record

50%

1611-1634 (3245)

LightParadox

Invested

$227.78

Value

$225.75

PnL

-$2.03

Record

50%

1593-1611 (3204)

Pan9X

Invested

$158.18

Value

$157.69

PnL

-$0.49

Record

54%

10096-8478 (18574)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$46.81

Value

$47.1

PnL

+$0.29

Record

51%

6449-6228 (12677)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.76

Value

$40.6

PnL

-$1.16

Record

46%

8689-10363 (19052)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$45.8

Value

$30.87

PnL

+$0.35

Record

58%

21422-15550 (36972)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$10.44

Value

$10.7

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

37969-37225 (75194)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

7427-7962 (15389)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 82%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 22 top traders (77%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.