Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 2 - 2 Liverpool FC?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 5.3¢ · $598 held · ended Nov 8

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$597.76

Combined PnL

$35.8

Smart Money Entry

5.6¢ → 5.3¢

-6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$283.93

Total Shares5,149

Combined PnL+$34.36

No2 traders

Total Value$95.65

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$1.43

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Yesavg 6.3¢	$240.29	$218.18	-$22.11	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 6.3¢	$142.12	$119.9	-$22.22
└ No leg	Noavg 94.6¢	$98.17	$98.27	+$0.1
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 6.3¢	$109.02	$95.01	-$14	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 94¢	$80.93	$82.22	+$1.29	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yes	$60	$60	+$60	28% 1154-3035 (4189)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$69.38	$51.44	-$17.93	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$22.42	$39.61	+$17.19	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.3¢	$39.41	$32.36	-$10.79	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 93¢	$13.29	$13.43	+$0.14	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.4¢	$5.6	$5.5	-$0.1	53% 63014-55227 (118241)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$240.29

Value

$218.18

PnL

-$22.11

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Both legs:

Yes$142.126.3¢-$22.22

No$98.1794.6¢+$0.1

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$109.02

Value

$95.01

PnL

-$14

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$80.93

Value

$82.22

PnL

+$1.29

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60

Value

$60

PnL

+$60

Record

28%

1154-3035 (4189)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.38

Value

$51.44

PnL

-$17.93

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.42

Value

$39.61

PnL

+$17.19

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.41

Value

$32.36

PnL

-$10.79

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$13.29

Value

$13.43

PnL

+$0.14

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.6%

5.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1416.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

1516.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.