Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-11-08?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 84¢ · $856 held · ends Nov 8

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$856.15

Combined PnL

$9.12

Smart Money Entry

82.9¢ → 83.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$746.53

Total Shares890

Combined PnL+$5.93

Yes3 traders

Total Value$109.62

Total Shares664

Combined PnL+$3.19

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 82.9¢	$803.21	$730.63	+$6.08	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 16¢	$104.15	$107.4	+$3.25	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 81.8¢	$6.43	$6.19	-$0.25	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
DV dv-pm<$100	Noavg 83.7¢	$5.02	$4.98	+$0.03	48% 3364-3590 (6954)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 81¢	$4.66	$4.73	+$0.07	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$1.43	$1.39	-$0.04	53% 17085-15197 (32282)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$0.85	$0.82	-$0.03	50% 26504-26107 (52611)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$803.21

Value

$730.63

PnL

+$6.08

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$104.15

Value

$107.4

PnL

+$3.25

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$6.43

Value

$6.19

PnL

-$0.25

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

dv-pm<$100

Invested

$5.02

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

3364-3590 (6954)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$4.66

Value

$4.73

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.43

Value

$1.39

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

17085-15197 (32282)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.