Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Crystal Palace FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 39¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$8.2K
$1.0K
39.9¢ → 38.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1CTR | Noavg 40¢ | $6.4K | $7.4K | +$1.0K | 64% 1081-614 (1695) |
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 38¢ | $389.27 | $394.39 | +$5.12 | 64% 10184-5783 (15967) |
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 58¢ | $204.84 | $201.06 | -$3.78 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 58¢ | $174 | $160.5 | -$13.5 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $2.66 | $3.26 | +$0.6 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $0.67 | $0.78 | +$0.11 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
Invested
$6,390.43
Value
$7.4K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
64%
1081-614 (1695)
Invested
$389.27
Value
$394.39
PnL
+$5.12
Record
64%
10184-5783 (15967)
Invested
$204.84
Value
$201.06
PnL
-$3.78
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
VeryLucky888Invested
$174
Value
$160.5
PnL
-$13.5
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Invested
$2.66
Value
$3.26
PnL
+$0.6
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$0.67
Value
$0.78
PnL
+$0.11
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.