Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 6.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 99¢ · $352 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 100%
$352.44
-$242.05
96.1¢ → 99.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 96.1¢ | $484.61 | $287.09 | -$197.52 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 96.1¢ | $95.14 | $50 | -$45.14 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 96.1¢ | $27.85 | $10.38 | +$0.49 | 57% 13804-10576 (24380) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Underavg 97¢ | $4.85 | $4.97 | +$0.12 | 36% 15596-27543 (43139) |
Invested
$484.61
Value
$287.09
PnL
-$197.52
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
Invested
$95.14
Value
$50
PnL
-$45.14
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
Invested
$27.85
Value
$10.38
PnL
+$0.49
Record
57%
13804-10576 (24380)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$4.97
PnL
+$0.12
Record
36%
15596-27543 (43139)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.