Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 100¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 31

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.0K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 100¢

+29% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares10,723

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares5,550

Combined PnL-$79.37

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 79.8¢	$7.5K	$9.4K	+$1.9K	72% 2405-930 (3335)
ER72SENARB<$100	Underavg 49.5¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$269.61	67% 300-149 (449)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.5¢	$805.76	$1.1K	+$261.46
└ Over leg	Overavg 34¢	$553.97	$562.12	+$8.15
MA MastermoneyCTR	Overavg 76¢	$1,000	$999.93	-$0.07	47% 212-240 (452)
MI MinevaJ	Underavg 70.5¢	$1.6K	$936.21	-$196.69	58% 1008-738 (1746)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR	Overavg 62¢	$249.78	$386.76	+$136.98	42% 2244-3042 (5286)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 31.6¢	$572.51	$277.86	-$294.65	49% 7958-8291 (16249)
US user921123CTR	Overavg 6¢	$135	$213.75	+$78.75	59% 961-659 (1620)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 32¢	$38.57	$67.65	+$29.08	59% 10160-7156 (17316)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Underavg 39.9¢	$20.74	$42.38	+$21.64	47% 4567-5072 (9639)
RO Rocko33<$100	Underavg 59¢	$20	$33.88	+$13.88	63% 1111-641 (1752)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 24¢	$33.36	$33.36	+$0	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 23.8¢	$16.02	$16.18	+$0.17	57% 13804-10576 (24380)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Overavg 69.4¢	$11.24	$10.85	-$0.39	58% 2161-1596 (3757)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 38.5¢	$2.32	$6.02	+$3.7	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$5.17	$5.17	+$0	55% 8303-6696 (14999)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$7,498.62

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

72%

2405-930 (3335)

ER72SENARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,359.74

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$269.61

Record

67%

300-149 (449)

Both legs:

Under$805.7649.5¢+$261.46

Over$553.9734¢+$8.15

MastermoneyCTR

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$999.93

PnL

-$0.07

Record

47%

212-240 (452)

MinevaJ

Under

Invested

$1,609.08

Value

$936.21

PnL

-$196.69

Record

58%

1008-738 (1746)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR

Over

Invested

$249.78

Value

$386.76

PnL

+$136.98

Record

42%

2244-3042 (5286)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$572.51

Value

$277.86

PnL

-$294.65

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

user921123CTR

Over

Invested

$135

Value

$213.75

PnL

+$78.75

Record

59%

961-659 (1620)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$38.57

Value

$67.65

PnL

+$29.08

Record

59%

10160-7156 (17316)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Under

Invested

$20.74

Value

$42.38

PnL

+$21.64

Record

47%

4567-5072 (9639)

Rocko33<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$33.88

PnL

+$13.88

Record

63%

1111-641 (1752)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$33.36

Value

$33.36

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$16.02

Value

$16.18

PnL

+$0.17

Record

57%

13804-10576 (24380)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.24

Value

$10.85

PnL

-$0.39

Record

58%

2161-1596 (3757)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$2.32

Value

$6.02

PnL

+$3.7

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.17

Value

$5.17

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

8303-6696 (14999)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.