Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 96¢ · $2K held · ended Sep 5

Over4¢Under96¢Ended Sat, Sep 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

93.2¢ → 96¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over4%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,968

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Over3 traders

Total Value$124.43

Total Shares3,150

Combined PnL-$149.45

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 93.2¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	+$1.8K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
RN1CTR	Overavg 8.6¢	$237.34	$109.49	-$127.85	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
AR ARocky33CTR<$100	Overavg 7.5¢	$29.74	$10.59	-$19.15	76% 4579-1422 (6001)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 85¢	$58.7	$10.46	+$16.02	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 85¢	$8.6	$8.15	-$0.44	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Overavg 6.2¢	$6.8	$4.35	-$2.46	42% 8192-11384 (19576)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$2,023.61

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$237.34

Value

$109.49

PnL

-$127.85

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

ARocky33CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.74

Value

$10.59

PnL

-$19.15

Record

76%

4579-1422 (6001)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$58.7

Value

$10.46

PnL

+$16.02

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$8.6

Value

$8.15

PnL

-$0.44

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.8

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$2.46

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.