Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 94¢ · $4K held · ended Sep 5
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$4.1K
$3.8K
67.3¢ → 93.5¢
+39% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 66.9¢ | $2.6K | $2.5K | +$2.6K | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 RN1 | Underavg 67.8¢ | $1.9K | $1.6K | +$1.4K | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 24.5¢ | $340.82 | $42.83 | -$125.69 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 67¢ | $15.3 | $12 | +$1.14 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
FE ferrariChampions2026<$100 | Underavg 69¢ | $6.68 | $9.05 | +$2.37 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
Invested
$2,576.47
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$2.6K
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
RN1Invested
$1,858.8
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$340.82
Value
$42.83
PnL
-$125.69
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$15.3
Value
$12
PnL
+$1.14
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$6.68
Value
$9.05
PnL
+$2.37
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.