Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 62¢ · $475 held · ends Nov 8

Over39¢Under61¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$474.6

Combined PnL

$16.21

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 61.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$183.33

Total Shares476

Combined PnL+$7.14

Under4 traders

Total Value$291.27

Total Shares474

Combined PnL+$9.06

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 37¢	$176.19	$183.33	+$7.14	51% 26298-24932 (51230)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 60¢	$135.6	$138.99	+$3.39	48% 61710-66575 (128285)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 59¢	$117.13	$120.51	+$4.9	58% 47020-33905 (80925)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 60¢	$21	$21.53	+$0.53	58% 21353-15491 (36844)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Underavg 60¢	$10	$10.25	+$0.25	53% 2613-2309 (4922)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$176.19

Value

$183.33

PnL

+$7.14

Record

51%

26298-24932 (51230)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$135.6

Value

$138.99

PnL

+$3.39

Record

48%

61710-66575 (128285)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$117.13

Value

$120.51

PnL

+$4.9

Record

58%

47020-33905 (80925)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$21

Value

$21.53

PnL

+$0.53

Record

58%

21353-15491 (36844)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$10.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

2613-2309 (4922)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.