Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-11-08?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 49¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$6.7K
-$75.89
49.1¢ → 48.5¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 48.8¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$32.56 | 58% 47221-34058 (81279) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 49.8¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$15.88 | 51% 26669-25270 (51939) |
DV dv-pmCTR | Noavg 49¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$14.69 | 48% 3359-3586 (6945) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 48.7¢ | $750.71 | $747.3 | -$3.41 | 64% 10113-5660 (15773) |
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 48.7¢ | $548.41 | $546.44 | -$1.97 | 64% 10131-5728 (15859) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 49¢ | $222.65 | $218.1 | -$4.54 | 53% 16952-15078 (32030) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Noavg 49.7¢ | $118.35 | $114.22 | -$2.93 | 48% 62058-66943 (129001) |
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100 | Yesavg 52.2¢ | $19.46 | $19.18 | +$0.19 | 33% 1190-2368 (3558) |
WA waierma<$100 | Yesavg 53.2¢ | $10.24 | $9.9 | -$0.1 | 45% 95-117 (212) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$2,082.54
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$32.56
Record
58%
47221-34058 (81279)
Invested
$1,578.83
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$15.88
Record
51%
26669-25270 (51939)
Invested
$1,440.11
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$14.69
Record
48%
3359-3586 (6945)
Invested
$750.71
Value
$747.3
PnL
-$3.41
Record
64%
10113-5660 (15773)
Invested
$548.41
Value
$546.44
PnL
-$1.97
Record
64%
10131-5728 (15859)
Invested
$222.65
Value
$218.1
PnL
-$4.54
Record
53%
16952-15078 (32030)
Invested
$118.35
Value
$114.22
PnL
-$2.93
Record
48%
62058-66943 (129001)
Invested
$19.46
Value
$19.18
PnL
+$0.19
Record
33%
1190-2368 (3558)
Invested
$10.24
Value
$9.9
PnL
-$0.1
Record
45%
95-117 (212)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.