AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (89%) · Under at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 89%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$949.59

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 100¢

+37% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,853

Combined PnL+$963.09

Over1 trader

Total Value$17.1

Total Shares90

Combined PnL-$13.5

Under — 89%Over — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 73.2¢	$2.1K	$2.9K	+$782.92	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 74.5¢	$243	$326.03	+$83.03	72% 2405-930 (3335)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 80.2¢	$213.36	$254.7	+$41.34	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Underavg 66¢	$178.2	$221.4	+$43.2	54% 4886-4115 (9001)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 66¢	$31.68	$39.36	+$7.68	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 41¢	$19.64	$24.18	+$4.54	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$30.6	$17.1	-$13.5	50% 7031-7023 (14054)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 81¢	$1.62	$2	+$0.38	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
ZX zxc368<$100	Underavg 99.9¢	$1.2	$1.2	+$0	98% 13071-207 (13278)

RN1

Under

Invested

$2,142.26

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$782.92

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$243

Value

$326.03

PnL

+$83.03

Record

72%

2405-930 (3335)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$213.36

Value

$254.7

PnL

+$41.34

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Under

Invested

$178.2

Value

$221.4

PnL

+$43.2

Record

54%

4886-4115 (9001)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$31.68

Value

$39.36

PnL

+$7.68

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$19.64

Value

$24.18

PnL

+$4.54

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.6

Value

$17.1

PnL

-$13.5

Record

50%

7031-7023 (14054)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.62

Value

PnL

+$0.38

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

zxc368<$100

Under

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0

Record

98%

13071-207 (13278)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.