Will Fulham FC win on 2026-10-31?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 73¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 31
🔬
Research candidate
No
7
No 71%
$10.6K
-$80.07
72.7¢ → 72.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 73%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 73¢ | $7.2K | $7.1K | -$98.32 | 74% 6672-2394 (9066) |
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276 | Noavg 72¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$15 | 67% 2633-1282 (3915) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Noavg 72.1¢ | $968.75 | $967.31 | -$1.44 | 65% 1707-928 (2635) |
 HRTradingCTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $161.73 | $167.72 | +$5.99 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
 fyrskenCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $75 | $84 | +$1.5 | 49% 281-295 (576) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $68.23 | $66.64 | -$1.76 | 53% 15954-14130 (30084) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $38.48 | $37.44 | -$1.04 | 38% 417-667 (1084) |
Invested
$7,177.28
Value
$7.1K
PnL
-$98.32
Record
74%
6672-2394 (9066)
Invested
$2,160
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$15
Record
67%
2633-1282 (3915)
Invested
$968.75
Value
$967.31
PnL
-$1.44
Record
65%
1707-928 (2635)
HRTradingCTRInvested
$161.73
Value
$167.72
PnL
+$5.99
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
fyrskenCTR<$100Invested
$75
Value
$84
PnL
+$1.5
Record
49%
281-295 (576)
Invested
$68.23
Value
$66.64
PnL
-$1.76
Record
53%
15954-14130 (30084)
Invested
$38.48
Value
$37.44
PnL
-$1.04
Record
38%
417-667 (1084)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.