Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Aston Villa FC vs. Fulham FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$106.18

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$983.22

Total Shares987

Combined PnL+$533.38

Under4 traders

Total Value$395.1

Total Shares1,998

Combined PnL-$639.55

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 42¢	$367.14	$872.85	+$505.71	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609ARB<$100	Overavg 90.4¢	$821.61	$634.92	-$186.69	82% 2398-544 (2942)
└ Over leg	Overavg 90.4¢	$573.99	$396.83	-$177.17
└ Under leg	Underavg 39¢	$247.62	$238.09	-$9.52
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Underavg 43¢	$345.28	$333.24	-$12.04	53% 1136-994 (2130)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 40¢	$71.09	$100.22	+$29.14	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
DA dashattackerCTR<$100	Underavg 64.1¢	$50.39	$54.25	+$3.86	72% 2430-936 (3366)
JhonAlexanderHinestroza<$100	Overavg 83¢	$11.62	$10.15	-$1.47	57% 1134-848 (1982)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$1.53	$7.06	+$5.53	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 58¢	$637.45	$0.55	-$636.9	59% 45969-32302 (78271)

RN1

Over

Invested

$367.14

Value

$872.85

PnL

+$505.71

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$821.61

Value

$634.92

PnL

-$186.69

Record

82%

2398-544 (2942)

Both legs:

Over$573.9990.4¢-$177.17

Under$247.6239¢-$9.52

rabbitfoot1CTR

Under

Invested

$345.28

Value

$333.24

PnL

-$12.04

Record

53%

1136-994 (2130)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$71.09

Value

$100.22

PnL

+$29.14

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

dashattackerCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50.39

Value

$54.25

PnL

+$3.86

Record

72%

2430-936 (3366)

JhonAlexanderHinestroza<$100

Over

Invested

$11.62

Value

$10.15

PnL

-$1.47

Record

57%

1134-848 (1982)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.53

Value

$7.06

PnL

+$5.53

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$637.45

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$636.9

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.