Arsenal FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 3.5

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (69%) · Under at 67¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 7

Over34¢Under66¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 69%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

$109.01

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 66.5¢

+15% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over34%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares4,769

Combined PnL+$278.17

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares5,790

Combined PnL-$169.16

Under — 69%Over — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 59¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$63.02	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
└ Under leg	Underavg 59¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$96.03
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.3¢	$629.19	$662.2	+$33.01
FaroeseNationalist	Underavg 57¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$166.65	49% 577-595 (1172)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 42.1¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$206.66	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 59.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$75.13	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 57.2¢	$818.45	$848.95	+$30.49	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.2¢	$570.17	$642.69	+$72.52
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.7¢	$248.28	$206.26	-$42.03
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Overavg 42¢	$766.02	$811.61	+$45.6	47% 206-230 (436)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 57.6¢	$699.32	$701.95	+$2.63	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.6¢	$435.63	$487.43	+$51.79
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.6¢	$263.68	$214.53	-$49.16
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 58¢	$348	$387	+$39	51% 2058-1996 (4054)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 40¢	$270.26	$277.02	+$3.38	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
FO forecastication4	Underavg 58¢	$142.93	$136.77	-$6.16	50% 1412-1412 (2824)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$59.4	$47.93	-$11.48	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Underavg 58¢	$38.74	$37.07	-$1.67	64% 2039-1134 (3173)
tradecraft<$100	Underavg 57.5¢	$30.51	$34.22	+$3.71	51% 6512-6277 (12789)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 58¢	$11.02	$12.26	+$1.24	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 58¢	$2.9	$3.23	+$0.33	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 60¢	$3	$2.95	-$0.05	58% 21689-15792 (37481)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,248.09

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$63.02

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

Both legs:

Under$1,618.959¢-$96.03

Over$629.1942.3¢+$33.01

FaroeseNationalist

Under

Invested

$1,266.53

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$166.65

Record

49%

577-595 (1172)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$1,326.71

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$206.66

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$1,117.02

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$75.13

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$818.45

Value

$848.95

PnL

+$30.49

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

Both legs:

Under$570.1757.2¢+$72.52

Over$248.2842.7¢-$42.03

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Over

Invested

$766.02

Value

$811.61

PnL

+$45.6

Record

47%

206-230 (436)

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$699.32

Value

$701.95

PnL

+$2.63

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

Both legs:

Under$435.6357.6¢+$51.79

Over$263.6843.6¢-$49.16

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$348

Value

$387

PnL

+$39

Record

51%

2058-1996 (4054)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$270.26

Value

$277.02

PnL

+$3.38

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

forecastication4

Under

Invested

$142.93

Value

$136.77

PnL

-$6.16

Record

50%

1412-1412 (2824)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$59.4

Value

$47.93

PnL

-$11.48

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

darkumbreon88<$100

Under

Invested

$38.74

Value

$37.07

PnL

-$1.67

Record

64%

2039-1134 (3173)

tradecraft<$100

Under

Invested

$30.51

Value

$34.22

PnL

+$3.71

Record

51%

6512-6277 (12789)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$11.02

Value

$12.26

PnL

+$1.24

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$2.9

Value

$3.23

PnL

+$0.33

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.