Arsenal FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 0.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 97¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 7

Over97¢Under3¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$14.91

Smart Money Entry

96.2¢ → 96.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over97%

Under3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,219

Combined PnL+$15.55

Under4 traders

Total Value$138.8

Total Shares3,856

Combined PnL-$0.64

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 96.3¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$9.48	51% 27041-25614 (52655)
SE sentrio	Overavg 96.1¢	$684.42	$687.31	+$2.89	50% 26374-25995 (52369)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 96.2¢	$1.1K	$298.93	+$3.15	48% 62365-67229 (129594)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 3.4¢	$112.07	$118.66	-$1.65	49% 14970-15869 (30839)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 3¢	$68.86	$77.03	+$8.17	50% 28880-28690 (57570)
└ Under leg	Underavg 3¢	$40.87	$49.05	+$8.17
└ Over leg	Overavg 96.5¢	$27.99	$27.99	+$0
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 3.6¢	$14.01	$14.15	+$0.14	50% 1821-1809 (3630)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 96.6¢	$9.66	$9.65	-$0.01	46% 8761-10456 (19217)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 96.1¢	$7.69	$7.72	+$0.03	54% 10426-8742 (19168)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Underavg 2.8¢	$4.07	$5.15	+$0.86	55% 1424-1175 (2599)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 3.6¢	$0.84	$0.85	+$0.01	58% 21660-15754 (37414)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$3,077.88

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$9.48

Record

51%

27041-25614 (52655)

sentrio

Over

Invested

$684.42

Value

$687.31

PnL

+$2.89

Record

50%

26374-25995 (52369)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$1,082.35

Value

$298.93

PnL

+$3.15

Record

48%

62365-67229 (129594)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$112.07

Value

$118.66

PnL

-$1.65

Record

49%

14970-15869 (30839)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$68.86

Value

$77.03

PnL

+$8.17

Record

50%

28880-28690 (57570)

Both legs:

Invested

$14.01

Value

$14.15

PnL

+$0.14

Record

50%

1821-1809 (3630)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$9.66

Value

$9.65

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

8761-10456 (19217)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$7.69

Value

$7.72

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

10426-8742 (19168)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.07

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0.86

Record

55%

1424-1175 (2599)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.84

Value

$0.85

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

21660-15754 (37414)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.