Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Arsenal FC, while the market favors Hull City AFC (61%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Arsenal FC (75%) · Arsenal FC at 40¢ · $348 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Arsenal FC
4
Arsenal FC 75%
$347.75
-$0.74
40¢ → 39.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralArsenal FC at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Hull City AFC 61%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Arsenal FCavg 40.1¢ | $253.56 | $249.97 | -$1.51 | 51% 25776-24479 (50255) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Hull City AFCavg 60¢ | $87.66 | $88.37 | +$0.72 | 48% 61202-65999 (127201) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Arsenal FCavg 39¢ | $6.73 | $6.81 | +$0.09 | 69% 7209-3191 (10400) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Arsenal FCavg 40¢ | $2.62 | $2.59 | -$0.03 | 50% 25837-25546 (51383) |
Invested
$253.56
Value
$249.97
PnL
-$1.51
Record
51%
25776-24479 (50255)
Invested
$87.66
Value
$88.37
PnL
+$0.72
Record
48%
61202-65999 (127201)
Invested
$6.73
Value
$6.81
PnL
+$0.09
Record
69%
7209-3191 (10400)
Invested
$2.62
Value
$2.59
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
25837-25546 (51383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.