Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Arsenal FC leading at halftime?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $622 held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 43%
$621.9
$12.25
64.7¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 64.6¢ | $293.47 | $300.54 | +$1.27 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 36¢ | $46.13 | $154.85 | -$4.93 | 50% 28937-28754 (57691) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 64¢ | $58.58 | $59.41 | +$0.83 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Yesavg 66.1¢ | $48.94 | $48.1 | -$0.84 | 46% 8770-10463 (19233) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $7.88 | $23.37 | +$15.49 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 34.3¢ | $22.09 | $22.33 | +$0.24 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $38.56 | $13.3 | +$0.19 | 64% 10179-5769 (15948) |
Invested
$293.47
Value
$300.54
PnL
+$1.27
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$46.13
Value
$154.85
PnL
-$4.93
Record
50%
28937-28754 (57691)
Invested
$58.58
Value
$59.41
PnL
+$0.83
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$48.94
Value
$48.1
PnL
-$0.84
Record
46%
8770-10463 (19233)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$7.88
Value
$23.37
PnL
+$15.49
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
$22.09
Value
$22.33
PnL
+$0.24
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
Invested
$38.56
Value
$13.3
PnL
+$0.19
Record
64%
10179-5769 (15948)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.