Hull City AFC leading at halftime?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 93¢ · $842 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$842.26
$8.1
92.8¢ → 93¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 92.8¢ | $470.83 | $471.86 | +$6.11 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 93¢ | $193.44 | $193.44 | +$1.04 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 92.5¢ | $132.14 | $132.86 | +$0.71 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $43.08 | $43.08 | +$0.23 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $17 | $1.02 | +$0 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$470.83
Value
$471.86
PnL
+$6.11
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
$193.44
Value
$193.44
PnL
+$1.04
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$132.14
Value
$132.86
PnL
+$0.71
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
Invested
$43.08
Value
$43.08
PnL
+$0.23
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$17
Value
$1.02
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.