Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 0 Hull City AFC?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 86¢ · $471 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$470.72
$325.4
85¢ → 85.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $13.89 | $370 | +$356.11 | 28% 1145-2969 (4114) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $80.39 | $59.59 | -$20.81 | 51% 38190-37427 (75617) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $26.97 | $19.99 | -$6.98 | 51% 27051-25620 (52671) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.6¢ | $17.76 | $16.47 | -$1.29 | 50% 21534-21823 (43357) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $6.31 | $4.67 | -$1.63 | 50% 26383-26006 (52389) |
Invested
$13.89
Value
$370
PnL
+$356.11
Record
28%
1145-2969 (4114)
Invested
$80.39
Value
$59.59
PnL
-$20.81
Record
51%
38190-37427 (75617)
Invested
$26.97
Value
$19.99
PnL
-$6.98
Record
51%
27051-25620 (52671)
Invested
$17.76
Value
$16.47
PnL
-$1.29
Record
50%
21534-21823 (43357)
Invested
$6.31
Value
$4.67
PnL
-$1.63
Record
50%
26383-26006 (52389)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.