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8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 93¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 7

Yes7¢No93¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

-$18.64

Smart Money Entry

95.1¢ → 93¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares5,996

Combined PnL-$65.03

Yes2 traders

Total Value$113.03

Total Shares2,055

Combined PnL+$46.39

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Noavg 95.2¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$4.94	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 94.9¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$58.5	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
LI Limousin	Noavg 95¢	$739.26	$706	+$3.7	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
NM NM-P	Noavg 95¢	$403.75	$401.63	-$2.13	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
GC GC-P	Noavg 95¢	$399.13	$397.03	-$2.1	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 95¢	$190	$189	-$1	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 95¢	$100	$100	+$0	35% 19622-37185 (56807)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$52.75	$58.03	+$5.27	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$13.89	$55	+$41.11	28% 1145-2969 (4114)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$26.02	$25.96	-$0.06	49% 1843-1935 (3778)

MadridTime

Invested

$1,979.83

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$4.94

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,898.49

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$58.5

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

Limousin

Invested

$739.26

Value

$706

PnL

+$3.7

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

NM-P

Invested

$403.75

Value

$401.63

PnL

-$2.13

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

GC-P

Invested

$399.13

Value

$397.03

PnL

-$2.1

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

38791873984189

Invested

$190

Value

$189

PnL

-$1

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$100

Value

$100

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

19622-37185 (56807)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.75

Value

$58.03

PnL

+$5.27

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.89

Value

$55

PnL

+$41.11

Record

28%

1145-2969 (4114)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$26.02

Value

$25.96

PnL

-$0.06

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.