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4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 63¢ · $49 held · ends Nov 7

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$49.42

Combined PnL

$0.36

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$43

Total Shares67

Combined PnL+$0.44

Yes2 traders

Total Value$6.42

Total Shares17

Combined PnL-$0.08

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 62.2¢	$33.34	$32.7	+$0.27	50% 21439-21699 (43138)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 61¢	$5	$4.92	+$0.02	50% 26188-25839 (52027)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 38.9¢	$4.71	$4.54	-$0.05	51% 26597-25202 (51799)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 60¢	$3.75	$3.81	+$0.16	48% 62002-66846 (128848)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$1.9	$1.88	-$0.03	48% 3358-3584 (6942)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 61¢	$1.56	$1.56	-$0.01	53% 2643-2326 (4969)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$33.34

Value

$32.7

PnL

+$0.27

Record

50%

21439-21699 (43138)

sentrio<$100

Invested

Value

$4.92

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

26188-25839 (52027)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.71

Value

$4.54

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

26597-25202 (51799)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.81

PnL

+$0.16

Record

48%

62002-66846 (128848)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

3358-3584 (6942)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.56

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

2643-2326 (4969)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.