Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (85%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-07?
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 16¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
No
10
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$0.52
15.3¢ → 15.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-PARB<$100 | Yesavg 84¢ | $578.97 | $583.54 | +$4.58 | 39% 1347-2116 (3463) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 84¢ | $384.36 | $388.93 | +$4.58 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 15¢ | $194.61 | $194.61 | +$0 | |
DA darkumbreon88 | Yesavg 84¢ | $305.83 | $305.83 | -$1.82 | 64% 1892-1053 (2945) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 15.8¢ | $193.87 | $190.11 | -$3.76 | 51% 24276-22998 (47274) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 15¢ | $165.8 | $165.8 | +$0 | 40% 1349-2039 (3388) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 15¢ | $113.31 | $113.31 | +$0 | 50% 36347-35825 (72172) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $91.02 | $91.02 | +$0 | 50% 27780-27645 (55425) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Yesavg 84¢ | $29.64 | $29.64 | +$0 | 53% 16518-14663 (31181) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $10.49 | $10.84 | +$0.35 | 58% 19476-14320 (33796) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 84¢ | $8.6 | $8.35 | -$0.25 | 51% 7653-7369 (15022) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $7.68 | $7.68 | -$0 | 50% 4959-4890 (9849) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 84¢ | $424.65 | $2.75 | +$6.01 | 58% 45442-32918 (78360) |
Invested
$578.97
Value
$583.54
PnL
+$4.58
Record
39%
1347-2116 (3463)
Both legs:
Invested
$305.83
Value
$305.83
PnL
-$1.82
Record
64%
1892-1053 (2945)
Invested
$193.87
Value
$190.11
PnL
-$3.76
Record
51%
24276-22998 (47274)
Invested
$165.8
Value
$165.8
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
1349-2039 (3388)
Invested
$113.31
Value
$113.31
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
36347-35825 (72172)
Invested
$91.02
Value
$91.02
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
27780-27645 (55425)
Invested
$29.64
Value
$29.64
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
16518-14663 (31181)
Invested
$10.49
Value
$10.84
PnL
+$0.35
Record
58%
19476-14320 (33796)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.6
Value
$8.35
PnL
-$0.25
Record
51%
7653-7369 (15022)
Invested
$7.68
Value
$7.68
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
4959-4890 (9849)
VeryLucky888Invested
$424.65
Value
$2.75
PnL
+$6.01
Record
58%
45442-32918 (78360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.