Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 5.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 84¢ · $4K held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
1 arb excluded
$3.7K
$3.2K
91.7¢ → 83.5¢
-9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 91.7¢ | $3.2K | $2.9K | +$3.2K | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR | Overavg 14.3¢ | $337.66 | $380.43 | +$42.78 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 90.3¢ | $347.38 | $324.89 | +$246.1 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 90.3¢ | $242.63 | $224.27 | -$18.35 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 11.9¢ | $72.72 | $100.61 | +$264.45 | |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 92.3¢ | $81.68 | $74.16 | -$7.52 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 5.1¢ | $292.95 | $27.69 | +$20.33 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 92.4¢ | $12.68 | $11.58 | -$1.1 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
Invested
$3,186.26
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$3.2K
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$337.66
Value
$380.43
PnL
+$42.78
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$347.38
Value
$324.89
PnL
+$246.1
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Both legs:
Invested
$81.68
Value
$74.16
PnL
-$7.52
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Invested
$292.95
Value
$27.69
PnL
+$20.33
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$12.68
Value
$11.58
PnL
-$1.1
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.