Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Chelsea FC (83%) · Chelsea FC at 92¢ · $2K held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
Chelsea FC
6
Chelsea FC 83%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
$1.3K
87.3¢ → 92¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralChelsea FC at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
61h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
83% of non-arb traders are on Chelsea FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Chelsea FCavg 85.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | +$1.3K | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
UP UpTheBlues | Chelsea FCavg 91.6¢ | $591.33 | $593.37 | +$2.03 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100 | Chelsea FCavg 94¢ | $186.71 | $156.03 | -$30.68 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
| └ Chelsea FC leg | Chelsea FCavg 94¢ | $125.75 | $123.07 | -$2.68 | |
| └ Arsenal FC leg | Arsenal FCavg 14.8¢ | $60.97 | $32.96 | -$28.01 | |
 RN1<$100 | Chelsea FCavg 84¢ | $66.95 | $66.95 | +$69.5 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
 Fuentes31CTR | Arsenal FCavg 15.6¢ | $104.25 | $53.33 | -$100 | 53% 687-608 (1295) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Chelsea FCavg 85.3¢ | $18.7 | $14.75 | +$0.79 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
38 38791873984189 | Chelsea FCavg 86.8¢ | $315.01 | $5.01 | +$24.44 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
Invested
$1,402.74
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$591.33
Value
$593.37
PnL
+$2.03
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Invested
$186.71
Value
$156.03
PnL
-$30.68
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Both legs:
RN1<$100Invested
$66.95
Value
$66.95
PnL
+$69.5
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Fuentes31CTRInvested
$104.25
Value
$53.33
PnL
-$100
Record
53%
687-608 (1295)
Invested
$18.7
Value
$14.75
PnL
+$0.79
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$315.01
Value
$5.01
PnL
+$24.44
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.