Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Under β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Under

Yeovil Town FC vs. Boreham Wood FC: O/U 4.5
Resolved Under. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was right.
π
Won
5
Under 60%
1 arb excluded
$129.04
-$1.99
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 68.8Β’ | $86.27 | $79.7 | -$6.58 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
| β Under leg | Underavg 68.8Β’ | $54.82 | $79.7 | +$24.87 | |
| β Over leg | Overavg 20Β’ | $31.45 | β | -$31.45 | |
SM smithagent<$100 | Underavg 88Β’ | $19.36 | $22 | +$2.64 | 45% 679-837 (1516) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Underavg 50Β’ | $10 | $20 | +$10 | 36% 975-1701 (2676) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 20Β’ | $17.3 | β | -$17.3 | 36% 477-850 (1327) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Underavg 50Β’ | $3.67 | $7.34 | +$3.67 | 38% 1014-1686 (2700) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Overavg 20Β’ | $1 | β | -$1 | 48% 2157-2304 (4461) |
Invested
$86.27
Value
$79.7
PnL
-$6.58
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
Both legs:
Invested
$19.36
Value
$22
PnL
+$2.64
Record
45%
679-837 (1516)
Invested
$10
Value
$20
PnL
+$10
Record
36%
975-1701 (2676)
Invested
$17.3
Value
β
PnL
-$17.3
Record
36%
477-850 (1327)
Invested
$3.67
Value
$7.34
PnL
+$3.67
Record
38%
1014-1686 (2700)
Invested
$1
Value
β
PnL
-$1
Record
48%
2157-2304 (4461)