Spread: Woking FC (-5.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Forest Green Rovers FC (20%) · Forest Green Rovers FC at 54¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Forest Green Rovers FC
5
Forest Green Rovers FC 20%
$3.5K
-$326
Research grade
NeutralForest Green Rovers FC at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
67h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Forest Green Rovers FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Forest Green Rovers FCavg 78.2¢ | $3.0K | $2.1K | -$924.66 | 52% 49669-46633 (96302) |
 SilentSharkCTR | Woking FCavg 24.7¢ | $370 | $690 | +$320 | 58% 196-140 (336) |
LU lukibazdonauki754CTR | Woking FCavg 32.1¢ | $315.1 | $451.25 | +$136.15 | 64% 1267-710 (1977) |
BU Burkilota1CTR | Woking FCavg 15.5¢ | $65.27 | $193.81 | +$128.54 | 59% 893-619 (1512) |
 0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTR | Woking FC | $117.57 | $117.57 | +$13.97 | — |
Invested
$2,984.38
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$924.66
Record
52%
49669-46633 (96302)
SilentSharkCTRInvested
$370
Value
$690
PnL
+$320
Record
58%
196-140 (336)
Invested
$315.1
Value
$451.25
PnL
+$136.15
Record
64%
1267-710 (1977)
Invested
$65.27
Value
$193.81
PnL
+$128.54
Record
59%
893-619 (1512)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTRInvested
$117.57
Value
$117.57
PnL
+$13.97
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.