Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Worthing FC win on 2026-11-14?
4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
12
Yes 33%
$1.9K
-$53.26
62.5¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 68.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$29.11 | 49% 3821-3983 (7804) |
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR | Yesavg 38.3¢ | $147.76 | $256.24 | +$108.49 | 13% 49-336 (385) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 60.9¢ | $85.63 | $57.26 | -$28.37 | 37% 1028-1723 (2751) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 63.2¢ | $121.46 | $34.94 | -$86.52 | 53% 2085-1830 (3915) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 19.5¢ | $37.08 | $30.42 | -$6.66 | 36% 933-1644 (2577) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 62.8¢ | $18.72 | $11.93 | -$6.79 | 30% 335-776 (1111) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Yesavg 76¢ | $10 | $9.47 | -$0.53 | 40% 433-650 (1083) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $6.4 | $3.7 | -$2.7 | 53% 1351-1180 (2531) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 19¢ | $3.42 | $3.51 | +$0.09 | 36% 948-1669 (2617) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $11.33 | $2.63 | +$0.1 | 48% 2074-2236 (4310) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $3.25 | $1.85 | -$1.4 | 42% 995-1363 (2358) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $0.28 | $0.42 | +$0.14 | 49% 1117-1185 (2302) |
Invested
$1,545.27
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$29.11
Record
49%
3821-3983 (7804)
Invested
$147.76
Value
$256.24
PnL
+$108.49
Record
13%
49-336 (385)
Invested
$85.63
Value
$57.26
PnL
-$28.37
Record
37%
1028-1723 (2751)
Invested
$121.46
Value
$34.94
PnL
-$86.52
Record
53%
2085-1830 (3915)
Invested
$37.08
Value
$30.42
PnL
-$6.66
Record
36%
933-1644 (2577)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$18.72
Value
$11.93
PnL
-$6.79
Record
30%
335-776 (1111)
Invested
$10
Value
$9.47
PnL
-$0.53
Record
40%
433-650 (1083)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$6.4
Value
$3.7
PnL
-$2.7
Record
53%
1351-1180 (2531)
Invested
$3.42
Value
$3.51
PnL
+$0.09
Record
36%
948-1669 (2617)
Invested
$11.33
Value
$2.63
PnL
+$0.1
Record
48%
2074-2236 (4310)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$1.85
PnL
-$1.4
Record
42%
995-1363 (2358)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.28
Value
$0.42
PnL
+$0.14
Record
49%
1117-1185 (2302)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.