Will FC Halifax Town win on 2026-11-14?

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 95¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$261.72

Smart Money Entry

79.3¢ → 95¢

+20% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,189

Combined PnL+$312.67

Yes4 traders

Total Value$125.32

Total Shares778

Combined PnL-$50.94

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 82.4¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$163.23	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 64¢	$328.19	$476.9	+$148.72	9% 30-286 (316)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$251.81	$257.01	+$5.2	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16.7¢	$201	$192.34	-$8.66
└ No leg	Noavg 66¢	$50.81	$64.67	+$13.86
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$78.2	$56.13	-$14.76	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$30.98	$50.33	+$19.36	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 82.8¢	$51.5	$46.35	-$5.15	30% 335-776 (1111)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 87¢	$59.63	$30.82	+$1.05	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 67¢	$20.1	$23.4	+$3.3	34% 368-702 (1070)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 78.2¢	$18.63	$17.56	-$1.08	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.1¢	$64.4	$11.52	-$52.87	13% 49-336 (385)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$10	$7.33	-$2.67	40% 433-650 (1083)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 63¢	$6.07	$6.46	+$0.39	37% 970-1635 (2605)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 65¢	$4.49	$6.42	+$1.93	36% 933-1644 (2577)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Noavg 89¢	$4.45	$4.5	+$0.05	82% 709-151 (860)
SM smithagent<$100	Noavg 75¢	$3.75	$3.98	+$0.23	45% 656-817 (1473)
LR lryyy<$100	Noavg 78¢	$3.9	$3.9	+$0	45% 805-991 (1796)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,334.38

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$163.23

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$328.19

Value

$476.9

PnL

+$148.72

Record

30-286 (316)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$251.81

Value

$257.01

PnL

+$5.2

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

Both legs:

Invested

$78.2

Value

$56.13

PnL

-$14.76

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.98

Value

$50.33

PnL

+$19.36

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$51.5

Value

$46.35

PnL

-$5.15

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$59.63

Value

$30.82

PnL

+$1.05

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$20.1

Value

$23.4

PnL

+$3.3

Record

34%

368-702 (1070)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$18.63

Value

$17.56

PnL

-$1.08

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.4

Value

$11.52

PnL

-$52.87

Record

13%

49-336 (385)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$7.33

PnL

-$2.67

Record

40%

433-650 (1083)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$6.07

Value

$6.46

PnL

+$0.39

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$4.49

Value

$6.42

PnL

+$1.93

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

82%

709-151 (860)

smithagent<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.98

PnL

+$0.23

Record

45%

656-817 (1473)

lryyy<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

805-991 (1796)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.