Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 9 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Hornchurch FC win on 2026-11-14?

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 53%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$208.72

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 17 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$357.58

Total Shares856

Combined PnL-$47.91

No9 traders

Total Value$180.83

Total Shares657

Combined PnL-$160.81

Yes — 47%No — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 66.4¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$69.51	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66.4¢	$734.69	$647.05	-$87.65
└ No leg	Noavg 40.3¢	$614.69	$632.83	+$18.14
rayvanmechelen	Yesavg 42¢	$258.41	$193.81	-$64.6	9% 30-286 (316)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 57.8¢	$283.39	$132.66	-$141.12	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 50.3¢	$143.96	$80.38	-$63.57	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
└ No leg	Noavg 50.3¢	$131.95	$56.41	-$75.54
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.3¢	$12.01	$23.97	+$11.97
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 42.1¢	$46.9	$56.77	+$9.87	49% 1117-1185 (2302)
Secondhandvinyl<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$42.8	$47.51	+$4.71	76% 235-76 (311)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$31.9	$31.9	+$0	56% 463-370 (833)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 93¢	$29.69	$31.48	+$1.79	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
PA pauleta23<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$10	$10	+$0	40% 433-650 (1083)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 43.1¢	$5.37	$8.97	+$3.6	46% 492-580 (1072)
LR lryyy<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$7.04	$5.61	-$1.43	45% 805-991 (1796)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 69¢	$4.83	$4.83	+$0	36% 948-1669 (2617)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$8.2	$3.96	-$4.24	35% 440-800 (1240)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 46.1¢	$5.79	$3.52	-$2.27	30% 335-776 (1111)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 40.4¢	$10.13	$3.43	-$1.85	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$5.15	$2.72	-$2.43	37% 960-1662 (2622)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$1.05	$1.08	+$0.02	44% 372-467 (839)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 6.1¢	$0.17	$0.12	-$0.04	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 14.1¢	$10.77	$0.04	-$10.73	36% 933-1644 (2577)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,349.39

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$69.51

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

Both legs:

Yes$734.6966.4¢-$87.65

No$614.6940.3¢+$18.14

rayvanmechelen

Yes

Invested

$258.41

Value

$193.81

PnL

-$64.6

Record

30-286 (316)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$283.39

Value

$132.66

PnL

-$141.12

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$143.96

Value

$80.38

PnL

-$63.57

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

Both legs:

No$131.9550.3¢-$75.54

Yes$12.0139.3¢+$11.97

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.9

Value

$56.77

PnL

+$9.87

Record

49%

1117-1185 (2302)

Secondhandvinyl<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.8

Value

$47.51

PnL

+$4.71

Record

76%

235-76 (311)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$31.9

Value

$31.9

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.69

Value

$31.48

PnL

+$1.79

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

pauleta23<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

433-650 (1083)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.37

Value

$8.97

PnL

+$3.6

Record

46%

492-580 (1072)

lryyy<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.04

Value

$5.61

PnL

-$1.43

Record

45%

805-991 (1796)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$4.83

Value

$4.83

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$8.2

Value

$3.96

PnL

-$4.24

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$5.79

Value

$3.52

PnL

-$2.27

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.13

Value

$3.43

PnL

-$1.85

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$2.43

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$0.02

Record

44%

372-467 (839)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.04

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$10.77

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$10.73

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 17 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.