Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Under β but Over won instead.

Hartlepool United FC vs. Wealdstone FC: O/U 1.5
Resolved Over. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
6
Under 67%
1 arb excluded
$455.87
-$53.99
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 29.3Β’ | $141.66 | $416.1 | +$274.44 | 53% 2162-1905 (4067) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 74.3Β’ | $308.64 | β | -$308.64 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
MA MadridTimeARB<$100 | Overavg 42Β’ | $23.47 | $37 | +$13.53 | 38% 1014-1686 (2700) |
| β Over leg | Overavg 42Β’ | $15.54 | $37 | +$21.46 | |
| β Under leg | Underavg 23Β’ | $7.93 | β | -$7.93 | |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 31.6Β’ | $10.2 | β | -$10.2 | 37% 991-1715 (2706) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 23Β’ | $2.67 | β | -$2.67 | 37% 1002-1720 (2722) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 67Β’ | $6.95 | β | -$6.95 | 37% 1063-1796 (2859) |
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100 | Overavg 99Β’ | $2.74 | $2.77 | +$0.03 | 99% 480-7 (487) |
Invested
$141.66
Value
$416.1
PnL
+$274.44
Record
53%
2162-1905 (4067)
Invested
$308.64
Value
β
PnL
-$308.64
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
Invested
$23.47
Value
$37
PnL
+$13.53
Record
38%
1014-1686 (2700)
Both legs:
Invested
$10.2
Value
β
PnL
-$10.2
Record
37%
991-1715 (2706)
Invested
$2.67
Value
β
PnL
-$2.67
Record
37%
1002-1720 (2722)
Invested
$6.95
Value
β
PnL
-$6.95
Record
37%
1063-1796 (2859)
Invested
$2.74
Value
$2.77
PnL
+$0.03
Record
99%
480-7 (487)