Will Gateshead FC win on 2026-10-23?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 70¢ · $307 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$307.03
-$37.86
79¢ → 69.5¢
-12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 79¢ | $267.8 | $235.6 | -$32.2 | 50% 37310-36579 (73889) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $48.19 | $42.39 | -$5.79 | 58% 51289-37277 (88566) |
DO donthackme<$100 | No | $27.8 | $27.8 | +$0 | 73% 12946-4868 (17814) |
YO youcanbuythisbotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $1.08 | $1.22 | +$0.14 | 49% 11037-11381 (22418) |
Invested
$267.8
Value
$235.6
PnL
-$32.2
Record
50%
37310-36579 (73889)
Invested
$48.19
Value
$42.39
PnL
-$5.79
Record
58%
51289-37277 (88566)
Invested
$27.8
Value
$27.8
PnL
+$0
Record
73%
12946-4868 (17814)
Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.22
PnL
+$0.14
Record
49%
11037-11381 (22418)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.