Will Barrow AFC win on 2026-11-14?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 100¢ · $977 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 38%
1 arb excluded
$977.33
$121.28
58.7¢ → 100¢
+70% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 81.3¢ | $451.76 | $397.1 | -$54.65 | 49% 3821-3983 (7804) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 81.3¢ | $304.11 | $316.2 | +$12.09 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 28.3¢ | $147.64 | $80.9 | -$66.74 | |
NO Notradecopy | Yesavg 57¢ | $185.74 | $250.91 | +$65.17 | 19% 46-193 (239) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Yesavg 60.5¢ | $174.83 | $222.43 | +$47.6 | 56% 463-370 (833) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $48 | $45.53 | -$2.46 | 53% 2085-1830 (3915) |
 poshposh<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $29.37 | $38.33 | +$8.96 | 49% 1117-1185 (2302) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $25.77 | $7.77 | +$0.3 | 53% 1351-1180 (2531) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 38.5¢ | $8.04 | $7.72 | -$0.32 | 42% 995-1363 (2358) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 19¢ | $3.35 | $5.38 | +$2.03 | 36% 933-1644 (2577) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $2.15 | $2.15 | +$0 | 30% 335-776 (1111) |
Invested
$451.76
Value
$397.1
PnL
-$54.65
Record
49%
3821-3983 (7804)
Both legs:
Invested
$185.74
Value
$250.91
PnL
+$65.17
Record
19%
46-193 (239)
Invested
$174.83
Value
$222.43
PnL
+$47.6
Record
56%
463-370 (833)
Invested
$48
Value
$45.53
PnL
-$2.46
Record
53%
2085-1830 (3915)
poshposh<$100Invested
$29.37
Value
$38.33
PnL
+$8.96
Record
49%
1117-1185 (2302)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$25.77
Value
$7.77
PnL
+$0.3
Record
53%
1351-1180 (2531)
Invested
$8.04
Value
$7.72
PnL
-$0.32
Record
42%
995-1363 (2358)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$5.38
PnL
+$2.03
Record
36%
933-1644 (2577)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.15
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
335-776 (1111)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.