Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 7.5¢ · $215 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$215
-$94.8
19.5¢ → 7.5¢
-62% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TY Tysha<$100 | Noavg 80.9¢ | $75.64 | $87.86 | +$12.22 | 72% 8275-3153 (11428) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 84.5¢ | $251.17 | $43.91 | +$3.47 | 57% 13944-10725 (24669) |
EL ElonSimpCTR | Yesavg 18.7¢ | $413.73 | $32.36 | -$128.87 | 34% 209-407 (616) |
BI bipbipbopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.1¢ | $77.73 | $25.58 | -$11.51 | 64% 2393-1321 (3714) |
 Kamenshyk22CTR | Yesavg 26.5¢ | $5.92 | $24 | +$18.08 | 20% 387-1556 (1943) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.3¢ | $18.62 | $1.3 | +$11.81 | 36% 15698-27712 (43410) |
Invested
$75.64
Value
$87.86
PnL
+$12.22
Record
72%
8275-3153 (11428)
Invested
$251.17
Value
$43.91
PnL
+$3.47
Record
57%
13944-10725 (24669)
Invested
$413.73
Value
$32.36
PnL
-$128.87
Record
34%
209-407 (616)
Invested
$77.73
Value
$25.58
PnL
-$11.51
Record
64%
2393-1321 (3714)
Kamenshyk22CTRInvested
$5.92
Value
$24
PnL
+$18.08
Record
20%
387-1556 (1943)
Invested
$18.62
Value
$1.3
PnL
+$11.81
Record
36%
15698-27712 (43410)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.