Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$24.89

Smart Money Entry

99.3¢ → 99.3¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,444

Combined PnL+$0.33

Yes1 trader

Total Value$4.41

Total Shares276

Combined PnL+$24.56

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL ElonSimp	Noavg 99.3¢	$1.2K	$932.43	+$0.25	34% 209-407 (616)
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 99.4¢	$921.22	$431.93	+$0.06	64% 2393-1321 (3714)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$84.22	$69.26	+$0.02	57% 13944-10725 (24669)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.39	$4.41	+$24.56	36% 15698-27712 (43410)

ElonSimp

Invested

$1,177.7

Value

$932.43

PnL

+$0.25

Record

34%

209-407 (616)

bipbipbop

Invested

$921.22

Value

$431.93

PnL

+$0.06

Record

64%

2393-1321 (3714)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$84.22

Value

$69.26

PnL

+$0.02

Record

57%

13944-10725 (24669)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.39

Value

$4.41

PnL

+$24.56

Record

36%

15698-27712 (43410)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.