Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$24.57

Smart Money Entry

99.2¢ → 99.3¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,690

Combined PnL+$2.06

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.55

Total Shares507

Combined PnL+$22.51

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL ElonSimp	Noavg 99.3¢	$1.8K	$1.2K	+$1.29	34% 209-407 (616)
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 99.2¢	$442.16	$437.36	+$0.36	64% 2393-1321 (3714)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$72.61	$57.81	+$0.42	57% 13944-10725 (24669)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.39	$1.93	+$22.08	36% 15698-27712 (43410)
XZ xzsaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.83	$1.62	+$0.43	13% 4-27 (31)

ElonSimp

Invested

$1,752.94

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$1.29

Record

34%

209-407 (616)

bipbipbop

Invested

$442.16

Value

$437.36

PnL

+$0.36

Record

64%

2393-1321 (3714)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$72.61

Value

$57.81

PnL

+$0.42

Record

57%

13944-10725 (24669)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.39

Value

$1.93

PnL

+$22.08

Record

36%

15698-27712 (43410)

xzsaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.83

Value

$1.62

PnL

+$0.43

Record

13%

4-27 (31)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.