Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 40%
$3.5K
$3.16
98.6¢ → 98.2¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL ElonSimp | Noavg 98.6¢ | $5.8K | $3.3K | -$35.04 | 34% 209-407 (616) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 97.9¢ | $306.66 | $209.6 | +$1.1 | 57% 13944-10725 (24669) |
BI bipbipbopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $70.93 | $12.11 | +$8.68 | 64% 2393-1321 (3714) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $1.39 | $6.89 | +$27.09 | 36% 15698-27712 (43410) |
XZ xzsaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $1.07 | $2.65 | +$1.33 | 13% 4-27 (31) |
Invested
$5,754.93
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$35.04
Record
34%
209-407 (616)
Invested
$306.66
Value
$209.6
PnL
+$1.1
Record
57%
13944-10725 (24669)
Invested
$70.93
Value
$12.11
PnL
+$8.68
Record
64%
2393-1321 (3714)
Invested
$1.39
Value
$6.89
PnL
+$27.09
Record
36%
15698-27712 (43410)
Invested
$1.07
Value
$2.65
PnL
+$1.33
Record
13%
4-27 (31)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.