Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 96¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 6

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$208.36

Smart Money Entry

93.8¢ → 96.4¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$722.24

Total Shares719

Combined PnL+$13.17

Yes3 traders

Total Value$350.6

Total Shares9,226

Combined PnL-$221.53

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 93.9¢	$824.44	$572.85	+$1.91	64% 2441-1371 (3812)
DD dddtripsCTR	Yesavg 5.6¢	$446.23	$304	-$234.14	36% 607-1100 (1707)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96¢	$76.76	$77	+$0.24	54% 22035-19135 (41170)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 94.2¢	$107.92	$54.53	+$1.98	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
XZ xzsaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$12.62	$40.42	+$11.32	11% 4-33 (37)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 80.5¢	$47.12	$17.86	+$9.03	35% 17563-32834 (50397)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$4.89	$6.18	+$1.29	20% 2469-9863 (12332)

bipbipbop

Invested

$824.44

Value

$572.85

PnL

+$1.91

Record

64%

2441-1371 (3812)

dddtripsCTR

Yes

Invested

$446.23

Value

$304

PnL

-$234.14

Record

36%

607-1100 (1707)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$76.76

Value

$77

PnL

+$0.24

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

ghorrock

Invested

$107.92

Value

$54.53

PnL

+$1.98

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

xzsaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.62

Value

$40.42

PnL

+$11.32

Record

11%

4-33 (37)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$47.12

Value

$17.86

PnL

+$9.03

Record

35%

17563-32834 (50397)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.89

Value

$6.18

PnL

+$1.29

Record

20%

2469-9863 (12332)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.