Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 14%
$2.0K
-$110.08
Research grade
AvoidNo at 95%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-26 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
70h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bipbipbop | Noavg 92.5¢ | $2.8K | $1.5K | +$33.96 | 64% 2428-1351 (3779) |
DD dddtripsCTR | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $646.21 | $467.98 | -$178.23 | 36% 605-1093 (1698) |
XZ xzsaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $20.11 | $43.73 | +$23.99 | 11% 4-32 (36) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.6¢ | $34.81 | $22.29 | -$12.51 | 45% 13352-16261 (29613) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $3.28 | $4.4 | +$21.12 | 35% 17316-32015 (49331) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $1.29 | $2.72 | +$1.43 | 36% 2144-3841 (5985) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $0.21 | $0.35 | +$0.15 | 43% 2055-2685 (4740) |
Invested
$2,757.53
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$33.96
Record
64%
2428-1351 (3779)
Invested
$646.21
Value
$467.98
PnL
-$178.23
Record
36%
605-1093 (1698)
Invested
$20.11
Value
$43.73
PnL
+$23.99
Record
11%
4-32 (36)
Invested
$34.81
Value
$22.29
PnL
-$12.51
Record
45%
13352-16261 (29613)
Invested
$3.28
Value
$4.4
PnL
+$21.12
Record
35%
17316-32015 (49331)
Invested
$1.29
Value
$2.72
PnL
+$1.43
Record
36%
2144-3841 (5985)
Invested
$0.21
Value
$0.35
PnL
+$0.15
Record
43%
2055-2685 (4740)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.