Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$156.92

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 89.3¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,123

Combined PnL+$22.93

Yes4 traders

Total Value$590.15

Total Shares7,284

Combined PnL-$179.84

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 88.1¢	$4.0K	$963.81	+$8.83	64% 2438-1371 (3809)
DD dddtripsCTR	Yesavg 11.5¢	$806.97	$567	-$168	36% 607-1099 (1706)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 82.5¢	$116.71	$39.65	+$14.1	35% 17512-32753 (50265)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$54.19	$17.22	-$11.97	20% 2455-9831 (12286)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.2¢	$6.31	$4.2	-$1.6	45% 13592-16514 (30106)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$0.01	$1.73	+$1.72	43% 2142-2793 (4935)

bipbipbop

Invested

$4,025

Value

$963.81

PnL

+$8.83

Record

64%

2438-1371 (3809)

dddtripsCTR

Yes

Invested

$806.97

Value

$567

PnL

-$168

Record

36%

607-1099 (1706)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$116.71

Value

$39.65

PnL

+$14.1

Record

35%

17512-32753 (50265)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.19

Value

$17.22

PnL

-$11.97

Record

20%

2455-9831 (12286)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.31

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$1.6

Record

45%

13592-16514 (30106)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$1.73

PnL

+$1.72

Record

43%

2142-2793 (4935)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.7%

89.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.