Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 82¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 6

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$21.41

Smart Money Entry

86.5¢ → 81.5¢

-6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,065

Combined PnL-$11.63

Yes2 traders

Total Value$142.11

Total Shares1,184

Combined PnL+$33.04

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

96h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 85.9¢	$2.3K	$1.5K	+$35.38	64% 2441-1371 (3812)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 87.8¢	$811.23	$771.76	-$31.22	17% 1065-5312 (6377)
LornaPredicts	Noavg 88¢	$291.32	$264.19	-$2.93	20% 2469-9863 (12332)
DD dddtripsCTR	Yesavg 10.5¢	$219.12	$130.95	+$31.82	36% 607-1100 (1707)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 86.2¢	$181.86	$119.95	-$6.75	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 83.8¢	$67	$65.2	-$1.8	54% 22035-19135 (41170)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F	Noavg 86.8¢	$162.83	$52	+$1.17	25% 1630-4964 (6594)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 78.9¢	$75.89	$27.22	-$5.49	35% 17563-32834 (50397)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.4¢	$18.15	$11.16	+$1.22	16% 266-1363 (1629)

bipbipbop

Invested

$2,304.1

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$35.38

Record

64%

2441-1371 (3812)

WarriorH

Invested

$811.23

Value

$771.76

PnL

-$31.22

Record

17%

1065-5312 (6377)

LornaPredicts

Invested

$291.32

Value

$264.19

PnL

-$2.93

Record

20%

2469-9863 (12332)

dddtripsCTR

Yes

Invested

$219.12

Value

$130.95

PnL

+$31.82

Record

36%

607-1100 (1707)

ghorrock

Invested

$181.86

Value

$119.95

PnL

-$6.75

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$67

Value

$65.2

PnL

-$1.8

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F

Invested

$162.83

Value

$52

PnL

+$1.17

Record

25%

1630-4964 (6594)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$75.89

Value

$27.22

PnL

-$5.49

Record

35%

17563-32834 (50397)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.15

Value

$11.16

PnL

+$1.22

Record

16%

266-1363 (1629)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

96h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.