Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 87¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 6

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$262.12

Smart Money Entry

69.6¢ → 86.5¢

+24% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,367

Combined PnL+$257.02

Yes4 traders

Total Value$113.87

Total Shares946

Combined PnL+$5.11

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

64h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WA WarriorH	Noavg 88¢	$669.25	$662.11	-$7.14	17% 1057-5096 (6153)
NO northdrawer	Noavg 8.3¢	$26.1	$280.35	+$254.25	61% 14123-9028 (23151)
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 88.2¢	$249.33	$251.78	+$2.45	64% 2427-1348 (3775)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 12.4¢	$106.24	$98.03	-$0.05	35% 17297-31961 (49258)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 87¢	$57.87	$37.72	+$1.27	57% 17612-13142 (30754)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 88¢	$17.6	$17.8	+$0.2	54% 21790-18840 (40630)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$5.63	$9.65	+$3.62	36% 2138-3837 (5975)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.8¢	$3.99	$3.89	-$0.09	45% 13246-16111 (29357)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$20	$2.3	+$1.63	43% 2054-2682 (4736)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 88¢	$78.58	$0.9	+$5.99	25% 1615-4804 (6419)

WarriorH

Invested

$669.25

Value

$662.11

PnL

-$7.14

Record

17%

1057-5096 (6153)

northdrawer

Invested

$26.1

Value

$280.35

PnL

+$254.25

Record

61%

14123-9028 (23151)

bipbipbop

Invested

$249.33

Value

$251.78

PnL

+$2.45

Record

64%

2427-1348 (3775)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$106.24

Value

$98.03

PnL

-$0.05

Record

35%

17297-31961 (49258)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$57.87

Value

$37.72

PnL

+$1.27

Record

57%

17612-13142 (30754)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17.6

Value

$17.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

54%

21790-18840 (40630)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.63

Value

$9.65

PnL

+$3.62

Record

36%

2138-3837 (5975)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.99

Value

$3.89

PnL

-$0.09

Record

45%

13246-16111 (29357)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$1.63

Record

43%

2054-2682 (4736)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$78.58

Value

$0.9

PnL

+$5.99

Record

25%

1615-4804 (6419)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

64h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.