Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 98¢ · $461 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 43%
$461.17
$67.5
88.6¢ → 97.9¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-26 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer | Noavg 87.5¢ | $275.76 | $300.2 | +$24.44 | 61% 14123-9028 (23151) |
 LinaBell🦊CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $12.22 | $75.58 | +$61.14 | 18% 532-2391 (2923) |
BI bipbipbopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $95.88 | $26.47 | -$18.71 | 64% 2427-1348 (3775) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $16.72 | $20.85 | +$1.4 | 20% 2360-9245 (11605) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $19.44 | $19.06 | -$0.38 | 54% 21790-18840 (40630) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $24.22 | $18.33 | -$0.4 | 57% 17612-13142 (30754) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $20 | $0.68 | +$0.01 | 43% 2054-2682 (4736) |
Invested
$275.76
Value
$300.2
PnL
+$24.44
Record
61%
14123-9028 (23151)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100Invested
$12.22
Value
$75.58
PnL
+$61.14
Record
18%
532-2391 (2923)
Invested
$95.88
Value
$26.47
PnL
-$18.71
Record
64%
2427-1348 (3775)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$16.72
Value
$20.85
PnL
+$1.4
Record
20%
2360-9245 (11605)
Invested
$19.44
Value
$19.06
PnL
-$0.38
Record
54%
21790-18840 (40630)
Invested
$24.22
Value
$18.33
PnL
-$0.4
Record
57%
17612-13142 (30754)
Invested
$20
Value
$0.68
PnL
+$0.01
Record
43%
2054-2682 (4736)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.