Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$23.15

Smart Money Entry

96.6¢ → 97.8¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,528

Combined PnL+$19.71

Yes3 traders

Total Value$87.07

Total Shares3,141

Combined PnL+$3.44

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

80h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 98.7¢	$3.2K	$809.78	-$10.62	64% 2426-1347 (3773)
NO northdrawer	Noavg 88.7¢	$279.36	$305.55	+$26.19	61% 14094-8978 (23072)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 98.7¢	$231.68	$162.88	-$2.16	57% 17528-13093 (30621)
balthazar	Noavg 98.3¢	$147.49	$145.5	-$1.99	54% 26594-22226 (48820)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$11.34	$81.02	+$1.69	18% 532-2389 (2921)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$59.13	$57.66	+$8.53	60% 10619-7212 (17831)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$19.64	$19.4	-$0.24	54% 21779-18820 (40599)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$1.2K	$5.56	+$1.93	53% 7610-6739 (14349)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$20	$0.49	-$0.18	43% 2054-2680 (4734)

bipbipbop

Invested

$3,217.69

Value

$809.78

PnL

-$10.62

Record

64%

2426-1347 (3773)

northdrawer

Invested

$279.36

Value

$305.55

PnL

+$26.19

Record

61%

14094-8978 (23072)

ghorrock

Invested

$231.68

Value

$162.88

PnL

-$2.16

Record

57%

17528-13093 (30621)

balthazar

Invested

$147.49

Value

$145.5

PnL

-$1.99

Record

54%

26594-22226 (48820)

LinaBell🦊CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.34

Value

$81.02

PnL

+$1.69

Record

18%

532-2389 (2921)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$59.13

Value

$57.66

PnL

+$8.53

Record

60%

10619-7212 (17831)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.64

Value

$19.4

PnL

-$0.24

Record

54%

21779-18820 (40599)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,167.57

Value

$5.56

PnL

+$1.93

Record

53%

7610-6739 (14349)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$0.18

Record

43%

2054-2680 (4734)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

80h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.