Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 31

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

-$71.98

Smart Money Entry

98.4¢ → 96.8¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares5,770

Combined PnL-$100.66

Yes2 traders

Total Value$66.29

Total Shares2,771

Combined PnL+$28.68

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL ElonSimp	Noavg 98.4¢	$6.4K	$5.6K	-$99.58	34% 203-400 (603)
BI bipbipbopARB<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$752.48	$222.07	+$30.44	64% 2374-1317 (3691)
└ No leg	Noavg 98.2¢	$156.19	$153.9	-$0.8
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 2.1¢	$44.51	$68.17	+$31.24
CF 0xcfa9...a5d3CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$37.81	$63.26	+$25.45	—
PO poposub<$100	Noavg 98¢	$20.8	$19.72	-$1.08	46% 2053-2452 (4505)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$9.3	$3.02	+$3.23	36% 15335-27408 (42743)

ElonSimp

Invested

$6,417.31

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$99.58

Record

34%

203-400 (603)

bipbipbopARB<$100

Invested

$752.48

Value

$222.07

PnL

+$30.44

Record

64%

2374-1317 (3691)

Both legs:

No$156.1998.2¢-$0.8

Yes$44.512.1¢+$31.24

0xcfa9...a5d3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.81

Value

$63.26

PnL

+$25.45

Record

—

poposub<$100

Invested

$20.8

Value

$19.72

PnL

-$1.08

Record

46%

2053-2452 (4505)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.3

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$3.23

Record

36%

15335-27408 (42743)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.