Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 86¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$651.03

Smart Money Entry

88.7¢ → 86¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$956.37

Total Shares6,731

Combined PnL+$653.2

No3 traders

Total Value$455.2

Total Shares515

Combined PnL-$2.17

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DD dddtripsCTR	Yesavg 5.6¢	$333.29	$888.8	+$555.52	38% 598-971 (1569)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 89.3¢	$396.24	$390.99	-$5.26	46% 2769-3315 (6084)
BI bipbipbopCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$25.04	$52.08	+$27.05	64% 2374-1317 (3691)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 84.8¢	$42.4	$43.2	+$0.8	18% 527-2364 (2891)
PO poposub<$100	Noavg 85.7¢	$18.72	$21.01	+$2.29	46% 2053-2452 (4505)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$9.88	$15.49	+$70.63	36% 15335-27408 (42743)

dddtripsCTR

Yes

Invested

$333.29

Value

$888.8

PnL

+$555.52

Record

38%

598-971 (1569)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$396.24

Value

$390.99

PnL

-$5.26

Record

46%

2769-3315 (6084)

bipbipbopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.04

Value

$52.08

PnL

+$27.05

Record

64%

2374-1317 (3691)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$42.4

Value

$43.2

PnL

+$0.8

Record

18%

527-2364 (2891)

poposub<$100

Invested

$18.72

Value

$21.01

PnL

+$2.29

Record

46%

2053-2452 (4505)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.88

Value

$15.49

PnL

+$70.63

Record

36%

15335-27408 (42743)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.